CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-12-14T17:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28157/-1
CME Note: Bright nearly full halo CME with the bulk portion to the west in STEREO A COR2 imagery. Current SOHO data gap. The source is a X2.8 class flare from AR13514 (N05W54) peaking at 2023-12-14T17:02Z. The source is visible across all SDO/AIA wavelengths with clear dimming signatures to the SE of the eruption in SDO/AIA 193/171/211. Corresponding brightening seen in SDO/AIA 304. An EUV wave is clearly seen in SDO/AIA 193, 211, and GOES SUVI 284 traveling to the SE towards disk center and along the western limb. The EUV wave appears to correspond with a large shock in the coronagraph imagery. Post-eruptive arcades are visible around 2023-12-14T19:00Z in SDO/AIA 171.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-17T07:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-17T07:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1026.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 602.718 Acceleration: 0.456234 Duration in seconds: 223048.45 Duration in days: 2.5815793 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.46 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 704.5 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/12/2023 Time: 07:35 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 60.38 hour(s)
Difference: -0.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-12-14T19:09Z
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